The popularity of Anura Kumara Dissanayake and the National People’s Power has declined, posing a significant challenge for AKD.
Among the major parties, it was the only one to lose its vote share in this election, with its support base shrinking by approximately ten to twenty percent. Furthermore, the National People’s Power failed to secure a majority in terms of total votes cast and the number of elected representatives. While it did win an overwhelming majority in terms of Local Government Authorities, it managed to exceed half of the elected members in only about a hundred of them.
Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), led primarily by Sajith Premadasa, has not gained new momentum. The election results indicate that Sajith Premadasa’s leadership does not inspire voters. However, the SJB has reaffirmed its position as the country’s second national party.
SLPP leader Namal Rajapaksa emerged as the best loser in the local government election. However, his entourage includes corrupt individuals and thugs.
The Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK), formerly known as the Federal Party, has managed to re-establish its political dominance in the North and East.
Three former presidents—Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Mahinda Rajapaksa, and Maithripala Sirisena—did not cast their votes, effectively becoming political relics.
The argument that approximately 8% of invalid votes in the presidential and general elections should be considered as votes against the system has lost its relevance. This time, invalid votes accounted for less than 2%. According to election laws, votes in local government elections should be cast only for a party, making the process straightforward.
Sarvajana Balaya, led by media magnate Dilith Jayaweera, and the UNP, led by Ranil Wickremasinghe, have collapsed. These parties no longer qualify as national-level entities. The UNP’s vote share decreased, while Sarvajana Balaya spent millions of rupees per candidate.
The LG election results indicate that an SJB-UNP merger is inevitable. If not, the UNP has no future, and its supporters will likely shift toward the SJB.
In the last general election, the SJB received 62% of the votes cast, the SLPP 18%, the UNP-led alliance 4%, and the SLPP 3%.
The LG election results underscore Namal Rajapaksa’s foresight in deciding to contest the presidential election as the SLPP candidate, despite most party leaders aligning with Ranil Wickremasinghe’s “cylinder alliance.” Rajapaksa has successfully increased the SLPP vote base to 9%, largely by appealing to the Sinhala nationalist Rajapaksa supporters.
Although the SJB’s vote share has increased to 21%, it has suffered a significant setback in urban areas. The party’s support remains weak in the Western Province, where 29% of the population resides. Failing to secure a majority in the Colombo Municipal Council (CMC) is a major defeat for the SJB. However, the SJB (29 seats) and the UNP (13 seats) gave the NJP (49 seats) a close contest. The Muslim Congress holds 4 seats, and Sarath Fonseka’s Democratic National Alliance has 1 seat in the CMC.
Ranil Wickremasinghe’s UNP has seen a decline in its vote base, making him politically insignificant.
Apart from the UNP, the only party to see its vote base decline is the National People’s Power (NPP), which suffered a 43% drop—representing a 20% reduction in votes received since the general election.
The NPP government still remains in its honeymoon phase, benefiting from popular propaganda issues such as exposing corruption within the Rajapaksa family and Ranil Wickremasinghe. The NPP ran its LG election campaign much like a general election campaign, with President Anura Kumara and Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya addressing massive rallies across the country.
However, it has failed to uphold promises of a new political culture, even threatening to withhold central government funds from local governments that did not support the NPP.
Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya, despite her potential to emerge as a progressive political leader, openly advocated for violations of election laws.
More concerning, the NPP engaged in opportunistic propaganda targeting Tamil voters. It glorified the LTTE through campaign videos, appealing to pro-LTTE sentiments. Some songs promised to build a statue of Prabhakaran if the NPP won, while others proposed constructing a port in memory of Prabhakaran’s parents.
One song declared, “The ideology of the Tamil national leader is communism. The ideology of the National People’s Power is also communism. Let us unite under one shared vision.” However, Prabhakaran was not a communist, and the National People’s Power is not a communist organization. The NPP opportunistically sought Tamil votes, despite the JVP—its leading force—having once campaigned for the destruction of Prabhakaran and the LTTE.
Despite these efforts, the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) won 43 Tamil-majority institutions. The Akila Ilankai Tamil Congress (ACTC) secured 3 LG bodies. The TVMP, led by Pillayan, and the Democratic Tamil National Alliance, led by the EPRLF, won one institution each. The NPP secured a majority in three Vavuniya Pradeshiya Sabhas, but Tamil parties collectively won the majority of seats in two of them.
The Muslim Congress, led by Rauf Hakeem, won 6LG bodies, while the ACMC, led by Rishad Bathiudeen, won 3 LG bodies.
NPP had an illusion that Tamils and Muslims in the North and East were aligned with the NPP due to a superficial interpretation of presidential and general election results. In those elections, Tamil votes were divided, allowing the NPP to win by default. However, in this LG election, the NPP won a significant share of Tamil votes, making it the most popular Sinhala-led party in these regions—a notable victory.
The NPP, however, failed to secure local government bodies with a majority Muslim population as well. These election results indicate that the government has not earned the trust of minority communities, which is problematic both domestically and internationally.
Many leaders of the National People’s Power have made reckless statements after coming to power. Although the party claims to advocate a new political culture, it has failed to address ethical concerns within its ranks. No disciplinary action has been taken against a former party speaker who falsely posed as a professor with fake educational credentials. Similarly, MPs and ministers who have made inflammatory or sexist remarks have not faced accountability. In a democratic society, several JVP government ministers would be expected to resign over such issues.
The ongoing conflict between the National People’s Party and its foundation—the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna—weakens the government. The JVP perceives even constructive criticism from civil society as hostile, with JVP Secretary Tilvin Silva framing dissent as a battle between “traitors and heroes.”
Despite once campaigning against the executive presidency, the JVP now opposes its abolition—a stark contradiction. Issues faced by Tamil communities remain unresolved, while citizens see little improvement in their daily lives. Economically, the future presents formidable challenges.
The government’s primary advantage lies in the corrupt history of opposition figures and Sajith Premadasa’s centralized and one-man leadership. However, these factors are not unchangeable. The emergence of a third political leader, Namal Rajapaksa, could significantly shift pro-Rajapaksa votes away from the NPP.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake—the challenge posed by the local government election results is now yours to navigate.
08 May 2025.