[Prediction: The Result of Presidential Election 2015]
An Independent Research Conducted by Abu Ayman, M.Phil., Electoral Political Analyst.
“Declining Popularity” is the accepted parameter in the electoral political analysis. At the first presidential election which held in 1982, J.R. Jayawardena was able to obtain 52.91% votes, although his party got a land slide victory with a majority of 5/6 in the Parliamentary Election held in 1977. The fourth Executive President Chandrika Bandaranaike who secured 62.28% in 1994 was declined to 51.12% in 1999 with an annual drop rate of 2.23%.
Accordingly, the popularity of President Mahinda Rajapaksa and the ruling UPFA (57.88%) have been declined by 10% – 15% since 2010, at the annual rate of 2.5% – 3%.
It is noteworthy that the rural voters in the South are the main decisive factor in any national elections, because they hold around 50% of the total votes.
Although Mahinda Rajapaksa was able to obtain 2/3 from the rural base in 2010, now it has been dropped by 12% in the Ruhuna Region (base of Mahinda), 20% in Udarata (Hill country) and 50% – 70% in Rajarata (base of Maithree). It is a huge setback for Mahinda Rajapaksa, since he is about to lost in the urban and the minority electorates in the Northern, Western and Eastern provinces.
Full report: Indian Forcast on Presidential Election 2015