A Pareto Analysis of the Jana Balawegaya Force – Jayasri Priyalal

Pareto Analysis is a decision-making tool based on the Pareto Principle, also known as the 80/20 rule. This principle suggests that roughly 80% of effects come from 20% of causes. Pareto principle is a good guide useful to analyze causes and effects of the 9th Presidential election results held on 21st September 2024 in Sri Lanka. Exit polls predicted 28% votes gain for NPP, which rounded up with 43% votes polled, presumably further 15% complemented the tally from the protest votes of frustrated electorate of Rajapakse and Wickramasinghe corrupt partnership and cemented the victory of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake.

The Jane Balawegaya force that propelled the recent electoral shift to position President Anura Kumara Dissanayake as the 9th President of Sri Lanka was a culmination of protest votes of the 80 percent of the frustrated electorate in totality, who were determined to chase the 20 percent corrupt elitist who proclaimed to be the political pundits pretending to be the experts of rescuing the country bankrupted by them.

This writer opines that the seeds of Aragalaya movement with the GoHomeGota campaign culminated in the mobilization of the protest wave headed by two political brands  carrying Jana Balawegaya suffix. Namely National People’s Power (NPP) and Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB). Eighty percent rallied with Jana Balawegaya and silenced the twenty percent corrupt elitist paving the way for a system change.

Election of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake as the 9th Executive President of Sri Lanka is a great consolation for those who fearlessly took to the street and joined the Go Home Gota campaign. A true son of  a commoner from Thabuttegama who was not a part of the corrupt system is now tasked to initiate the necessary change for installing a functioning system to uplift the quality of life of the marginalized, vulnerable non-corrupt innocent people from the grasp of the corrupt elites who had been enjoying power at the expense of poor and destitute are now aspiring for a sigh of relief.

This essay aims to visualize how the electoral opinions ahead of the parliamentary election in November 2024  shapes the socio political landscape in Sri Lanka henceforth.

No man or woman is greater than his or her task

A mammoth task is ahead of President AKD. Undoing the entitlement driven welfaristic socio economic system. Which is not an easy task with varying degrees of expectations of different social strata.  As a nation, the majority of Sri Lankans are for a system change and the 80% of the Jana Balawegaya force need to be patient in realizing their dreams. At this stage all Sri Lankans should stand in unity irrespective of their political opinions putting the country before all other priorities. Sticking with ideologies will not take the country forward, except understanding the reality and introducing the right strategies with essential structural changes. Denouncing Marxism as NPP’s core ideology is a welcome move. It is also important to remember that debt burdened neo-liberal economic policies have ruined many economies. Sri Lankans need to invent an original socio-economic strategy that is unique with socialism at the core. Yet, the policy makers should not get saddled into  failed policy tools of “Brahmin Socialism” propagated by economists and think tanks without understanding the ground reality.

All Sri Lankans owe a heartening appreciation towards the judiciary since the Aragalaya for standing with justice and delivering candid judgements proving professionalism and its unquestionable independence. Which was not to the liking of the politicians in power and expressed their surprises suspecting of a judicial cannibalism. But the 2024 presidential election results proves the fact that the United National Party, the oldest political party in the country, has been cannibalized by its leader Mr Ranil Wickramasinghe.

This writer opines that the deterioration trend of law and order paving the way for corrupt unsustainable privileges led to political culture emerging with the enactment of the 1978 constitution under the leadership of President J R Jayawardena. Since then there was no rule of law taking precedence instead of the rule of lawyers who dismantled the order of the nation, from time to time in the name of democracy purely for state capture to remain in power. In the recent past we only witnessed the functioning of “Hora-Police” governments bankrupting the nation. Many of those governments consisted of policymakers who were professionally qualified lawyers.

President AKD deserves the credit for taking a few important critical steps such as appointing credible people to high offices of the government. Amongst them is the appointment of IGP, a respected policeman and a rank constable to head the institution responsible to maintain the law and order of the country. Similarly, sacking the head of Sri Lanka’s State Intelligence Service (SIS), bringing the agency under police control from military control is a critical decision. Choosing the right horses for courses is a step in the right direction is a praiseworthy achievement of President AKD in the short span into power. Similarly, he should give the right drums to the competent drummers to maintain the rhythm of the much anticipated system change.

It is heartening to note that the Secretary General of the Constitutional Council calling for an application to fill up the vacancy  of the Director-General of the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIAOBOC)  by 28th October 2024 is another consolation for those who aspired for a system change by holding the corrupt accountable for wrongdoing. In the current atmosphere, the Constitutional Council will have a tough time selecting the right person for the job.

The aforementioned actions deserve commendation of the tasks so far accomplished by the President AKD, and the rest of the bucket list will unfold in the days ahead. Putting the Executive and Judiciary in the right path in a short period deserves commendation and appreciation for foresighted actions for the common good of the nation. President AKD has shown his integrity and proven his metal standing tall against many other tasks ahead. Now all Sri Lankans have the chance to elect a functioning government at the forthcoming parliamentary election on 14th November 2024. Although the Jana Balawegaya swing was high favoring the NPP at the Presidential election, getting the right mandate to form a government even with a simple majority  at the parliamentary election will be a challenge. President AKD possessed the personality to appeal to the voters to cast their choice, but NPP has to face the parliamentary election sans the popularity brand of AKD.

Stand for one right thing, or opt to fall for everything

 Pareto analysis was cited at the beginning as a vital tool to apply to assess the degree of frustration amongst the marginalized and vulnerable groups in our society. This group was the dominant sector for the electoral gain of the NPP.   It is worth remembering the phenomenon of reality: all revolutions start in the belly once in four hours when hunger triggers for action.

International donor agencies still estimate that nearly 23% of the population has been pushed into absolute poverty. The helpless schoolgirl drinking water with sugar to sustain life as circulated in the social media is a true testimony. An island with abundance of natural resources and a manageable population, nestled in the tropics  grappling to provide basic needs to its population is unfortunate. This is the systemic failure that the policy makers need to address on a priority basis.

Addressing the burning issues of the marginalized poor, (දුකට පත්) due to lack of choice, 20% has to be dealt with urgency. First and foremost identifying these vulnerable groups is a challenge.  Dishing out social welfare in the past as a privilege in exchange of political patronage has to end. Shortcomings of the Samurdhi and Aswesuma have to be handled with care. Social protection with taxpayers funds need to be disbursed as a direct cash transfer to the deserving. Classic example to follow from India as to how the Prime Minister Modi’s government used the digital technology with the biometrics to identify and implement the “Aadhar” scheme. All divisional secretaries have to be tasked to identify the most deserving 20% of those struggling to feed, specially living in the plantations, in the urban areas-working poor- and those who lost their businesses during the past few years, the Micro Small and Medium Entrepreneurs.

Poverty anywhere is a danger for prosperity everywhere – Philadelphia Declaration

The Sri Lankan electorate is quite capable of using their franchise quite intelligently. They did demonstrate their maturity in the presidential elections candidly. People’s power to act fearlessly reoriented and well rooted in Sri Lanka with the Aragalaya movement in early 2022. Sri Lankans have proven peacefully that people’s power is always greater than those who get elected to hold power to the rest of the world. In the same spirit Sri Lankans will make the right choice in electing the next government on 14th of November 2024.

This writer aspires the next administration under President AKD  to be a national and unity government. It could be a Jana Balawegaya coalition to initiate the preliminary framework for meaningful stakeholder consultations with transparent social dialogues. The famous Philadelphia Declaration of 1944 cited as the sub-heading to caution as to how hunger and poverty can become a tide against the governments in power. Unless the policy making targets bringing in incremental changes to address the issues confronted by those  bottom 20% of the social pyramid, will stand in the way of bringing in the fundamental changes the majority of 80% of Sri Lankans aspire for. As reported in the media, poverty rates have nearly doubled to 23.4% of the population in 2024. A family of four needs an income of Rs. 100,000 per month to meet a minimum nutritional intake of 2030 kcal per day. These 20% will have the capacity to change the direction of the people’s mandate to govern.

Right Diagnosis of the compelling causes is half of the solution

No doubt for swing opinions at the elections political parties follow the strategy to kindle the emotions of the voters through anger>>>hope>> leading to Actions. Accusing the opponents with various corruption allegations and personal weaknesses dominates election campaigns everywhere in the world. Most of the elections are now won by managing the misinformation effectively through social media. Frustrated marginalized and vulnerable groups’ expectations remain at a very high level. The current fiscal limitations limit extending any worthwhile assistance. Hence those who are keen to stabilize the economy need to address the issues with practical solutions before they run out of patience.

Thus whoever gets the mandate to form the next government needs to identify the structural problems that hinders the strengthening of the producers and the consumers who are the important pillars in the real economy which drives the growth. Moreover, they need to come up with incremental policy changes mainstreamed first and come up with the critical fundamental policy changes embedded with the necessary structural changes at a gradual pace.

Jayasri Priyalal

19th October 2024