SLB Update: Elections, 2024 & Minority Vote – A statistical review

Sunanda Deshapriya.

1. National Peoples Power (NPP) a political movement comprising 21 diverse groups, including political parties, youth organizations, women’s groups, trade unions, and civil society organizations won presidential and general elections in September and November 2024. NPP has a 73-member Executive Committee. Six are women, three Tamils, and two Muslims.   NPP was established in 2019.
2. In the presidential election held on 21 September 2024, National Peoples Power leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake won the presidency obtaining 42.31% of the vote. In the general Election held on 1 November NPP won a 2/3 majority i.e., 159 parliamentary seats out of 225. It secured 56% of the total votes cast in a massive victory.
3. Thirteen political parties now have representation in the Parliament: National People’s Power (NPP) 159 seats, Samagi Jana Balavegaya  SJB 40 seats, Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi  ITAK 8 seats, New Democratic Front (NDF) 5 seats, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) 3 seats, Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) 3 seats, Sarvajana Balaya (SB) 1 seat, United National Party (UNP) 1 seat, Democratic Tamil National Alliance (DTNA) 1 seat, All Ceylon Tamil Congress (ACTC) 1 seat, All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) 1 seat, Jaffna-Independent Group (17)  1 seat and Sri Lanka Labour Party (SLLP) 1 seat.
4. NPP won all Tamil and Muslim-dominated districts in the North and East in the general election except Batticaloa district. This is the first time a national party was able to win majority seats in the Tamil and Muslim-dominated North and East.
5. It won the upcountry Tamil majority Nuwara Elya district as well.
6. This electoral victory of the governing NPP has been portrayed as a change in Tamil opinion on nationalism and accountability issues or a major shift in electoral politics in Sri Lanka.
7. Former Human Rights Commissioner Prathiba Mahanama wrote that  “the Geneva Human Rights Council cannot raise issues now that the National People’s Forces government has won in the North and East”. His comment was published on the Peoples Liberation Front (JVP) website Lanka Truth. President AKD is the leader of the JVP as well as NPP.
8. Another commentator wrote that “breaking with a seven-decade tradition, Sri Lankan Tamils flocked to the all-island National Peoples’ Power (NPP) party in preference to ethnic Tamil parties, including the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK).”
9. Chinese Ambassador to Sri Lanka Qi Zhenhong during his visit to the island nation’s Northern Province, said that “ethnic minority Tamils have made ‘a correct decision’ in helping the ruling National People’s Power (NPP) to win last week’s general elections.”
10.  Jayadeva Uyangoda, Emeritus Professor of Political Science at the University of Colombo, in an interview with an Indian magazine says that “NPP has been able to change the electoral map in the North and East.”
11. Despite these proclamations, a detailed analysis of the election results shows that Tamil nationalist parties obtained more votes than the governing NPP and there is no paradigm shift in voting patterns in the North and East.’

Northern Province: 

12. In the Jaffna electoral district, NPP polled 80,830 (24.85%) votes out of 325,312 valid votes. On the other hand, Tamil nationalist parties ITAK, ACTC, DTNA, and TMK polled 127,121 and Tamil nationalist independent candidates polled 56,893 votes. This means Tamil Nationalist parties polled 100,000 votes more than the NPP. Southern-based political parties and supporters polled 78,712 votes less than they received in the 2020 general election. Further in the presidential election held 7 weeks before the general election, NPP polled only Jaffna electoral district 27,086 (7.29%) votes. The increase of 53.000 within 7 weeks hardly can be attributed to ideological reasons.

13. In Vanni electoral district NPP polled 39,894 (20.37%) votes out of 195,886 valid votes and won the district. On the other hand, Tamil nationalist ITAK polled 29,711 (15.17%) votes & DTNA polled 21,102 (10.77%) votes. Together they polled more than 10,000 votes. SJB which had larger Muslim support polled 32,232 (16.45%) votes.

Eastern Province:

14. In the general election, Trincomalee electoral district NPP received 87,031 (42.48%) votes out of 204,8886 valid votes and won the district while in the presidential election held 7 weeks before NPP polled only 49,886 (20.83%) votes. SJB polled less than 33.000 in the general election. Two Sinhalese candidates were elected from the NPP while a Muslim candidate from the SJB and a Tamil candidate from the ITAK were elected. This also shows that the NPP vote base in Trincomalee is mainly Sinhalese.

15. In Batticaloa electoral district NPP 55,498 (19.33%) votes out of 287,053 valid votes and came second in the district.

16. In the Digamadulla electoral district 146,313 (40.32%) out 362,924 total valid votes. Here too NPP polled 63% in the Sinhelese-dominated Ampara polling division. NPP lost Pothuvil polling division where Sinhalese are a minority. Digamadulla District result shows a significant shift of Muslim vote towards the NPP. All Four MPs elected from the NPP for Digamadulla district are Sinhalese while 2 Muslims and one Tamil elected from ACMC, SLMC and ITKA.

17. A detailed analysis by Thusiyan Nandakumar shows that most votes polled by the NPP in Tamil majority Northern areas mainly came from either Southern-based parties and, Tamil parties supportive of Southern-based parties.

Nuwara Eliya

18. In Nuwara Eliya electoral district NPP polled 161,167 (41.57%) out of 387,656 valid votes and secured 5 parliamentary seats. Among them, four Sinhalese candidates scored the highest. This shows that the overwhelming vote base of the NPP in the district is Sinhalese. In the district population, approximately 51% are Tamils and 9% are Muslims.

19. In Nuwara Eliya district SJB polled 101,589 (26.21%) and both elected candidates of the SJB are Upcountry Tamils. The UNP polled 64,672 (16.68%) and the Upcountry Tamil candidate was elected. Both SJB and UNP fielded Sinhalese candidates, but they lost.

20. These statistics show that there is no paradigm shift in minority vote during the presidential and general elections held in 2024. This understanding is important for Sri Lanka policymakers everywhere.

(All election-related statistics are from the official website of the Election Commission of Sri Lanka if not indicated otherwise.)