Sri Lanka faces heightened risks from an unusually powerful El Niño during the coming months, with a United Nations assessment placing the country among those of “elevated concern” as climatic and economic pressures converge across the Asia-Pacific region.
The assessment, Asia and the Pacific: Snapshot of El Niño & Middle East Crisis, dated 28 August 2026 and published on the UN Sri Lanka website on 31 August, was produced by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), UN Women, World Food Programme (WFP) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The report warns that the developing El Niño could become very strong and potentially exceptional, ranking among the strongest events in the historical record and continuing well into 2027.
The UN assessment classifies countries according to four sets of indicators: the September-November seasonal rainfall outlook and its relationship to agricultural calendars; exposure to food, fuel and fertiliser pressures; existing acute food insecurity and humanitarian needs; and national capacity to cope with shocks. Sri Lanka is classified in Tier 2, “Elevated Concern”.
Sri Lanka could face excessive rainfall
In Sri Lanka’s case, the immediate danger is not necessarily drought.
The UN assessment points towards a wetter-than-average signal becoming particularly important from October 2026, when it coincides with the Second Inter-Monsoon during October and November. This is followed by the Northeast Monsoon from December to February.
Rain during Sri Lanka’s Second Inter-Monsoon is widespread and can become locally intense. The assessment also identifies the evolution of the Indian Ocean Dipole, particularly if it moves into a positive phase, as important in determining the extent of wetter conditions.
This means Sri Lanka faces a potentially dangerous convergence between heavier rainfall and the beginning of the Maha agricultural season, the country’s principal rice-growing season.
The danger therefore extends beyond abnormal weather. Heavy rainfall or flooding occurring alongside high agricultural input costs could place additional pressure on food production and vulnerable households.
Food, fuel and fertiliser pressures
The UN assessment warns about what it describes as cascading pressures involving food, fuel and fertiliser, against the backdrop of uncertainty generated by the Middle East crisis.
For Sri Lanka, the assessment says diesel and petrol prices were around 44 per cent and 41 per cent above pre-crisis levels respectively, while headline consumer prices had increased by around 6 per cent. It also highlights Sri Lanka’s exposure to imported fertiliser and international wheat markets, and says elevated fertiliser prices in 2026 have added pressure to agricultural production.
The combination is particularly important as the Maha season begins: high input costs and possible fertiliser constraints could coincide with heavy rainfall or flooding.
Millions across Asia-Pacific at risk of greater food insecurity
The warning extends far beyond Sri Lanka.
The UN estimates that the combined impact of the developing situation could push an additional 8.2 million people into acute food insecurity in just a number of monitored countries in Asia and the Pacific, with the actual regional total potentially higher.
The UN says widespread impacts have not yet materialised, meaning there remains a narrowing opportunity for preparedness and anticipatory measures. The most serious consequences for agriculture and food security may emerge during late 2026 and 2027.
WMO says El Niño now firmly established
A subsequent El Niño/La Niña Update issued by the WMO on 3 September 2026 strengthened the warning.
The WMO said El Niño was already firmly established by mid-August and was expected to intensify further. Its forecasts showed a near 100 per cent probability that El Niño would persist through September-November 2026 and December 2026-February 2027.
The WMO expects the event to reach very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of 2026. A very strong El Niño increases the likelihood of substantial shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns and extreme weather in different parts of the world.
However, the WMO makes an important qualification: the intensity of El Niño does not automatically determine how severe its effects will be in an individual country or region.
That distinction is particularly important for Sri Lanka. The UN assessment does not predict that the entire country will experience one uniform disaster. Instead, it identifies Sri Lanka as a country where climate risk, the agricultural calendar, food-security vulnerabilities and continuing economic pressures are converging, warranting elevated concern and close monitoring.
For Sri Lanka, the critical period now begins from October onwards, when the expected wetter signal overlaps with the Second Inter-Monsoon and the crucial Maha cultivation season.
Sources
The primary UN report is Asia and the Pacific: Snapshot of El Niño & Middle East Crisis (as of 28 August 2026), available through the United Nations in Sri Lanka website. It was jointly published by FAO, OCHA, UN Women, WFP and WMO.
The latest technical confirmation comes from the WMO’s El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026), published on 3 September 2026.